Lending Association

Key data releases and market dynamics for the week ahead

This week, we’ll witness key events, including US consumer spending and China’s release of its 2023 GDP data. In Australia, market attention will focus on job data, while Princess Mary’s ascent to Queen of Denmark holds more significance for Australians than the Davos talkfest.

Market concerns persist over inflation and the Fed pivot, with a rate cut anticipated in March. Geopolitical tensions, such as fighting in the Middle East and Taiwan’s defiance of President Xi, add to the uncertainty. Additionally, there’s a potential sleeper issue with the US government funding, as a shutdown looms if an agreement isn’t reached by January 19.

In Australia, the Westpac/MI consumer sentiment index for January may show a slight increase, but weak sentiment is expected, according to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver. Major releases include December and 2023 job data, with a forecasted flat labor market for December and unchanged unemployment at 3.9%.

China’s GDP reports, including investment, retail sales, and industrial output, will be crucial. Shane Oliver predicts a quarterly growth of around 1% and annual growth of 5.2%, boosted by the low base in 2022 due to COVID restrictions. In the US, retail sales data for December and 2023 will be released, with a modest growth forecast. Earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are anticipated, with an expected annual earnings growth of 4.3%, particularly strong in the tech sector.

Inflation figures from Canada and the UK are on the horizon, with Japan’s annual inflation rate expected to be around 2.6%. These releases will provide insights into the global economic landscape.